Record — BITFAX Analyst V1

Three figures measuring different things — which is why they stay apart. They are never added up.

LIVE RECORD · BITFAX ANALYST V1since 2026-08-12
Evidence by event

Each row is a separate event. “Occurred” means how often the event happened — not how often we were right. What matters is the comparison with the predicted probability.

Evaluated: matches from 2026-08-12 to 2026-09-30, using the last prediction before kick-off for each match. Short period since V1 started: the values may still shift considerably.
EventMatchespredicted avgoccurredopen · unclear
Home win1,47044.6%41.4%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
0–9 %76.4%0.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
10–19 %6015.6%10.0%
20–29 %12925.5%17.1%
30–39 %32735.7%34.9%
40–49 %46244.8%41.8%
50–59 %30754.2%46.3%
60–69 %10864.4%68.5%
70–79 %5673.9%83.9%
80–89 %1483.5%78.6%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Draw1,47024.4%26.5%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
0–9 %56.9%20.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
10–19 %16717.0%13.2%
20–29 %1,24525.1%27.6%
30–39 %5331.7%43.4%
Away win1,47031.1%32.1%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
0–9 %387.6%7.9%
10–19 %20715.9%14.0%
20–29 %53025.3%30.6%
30–39 %40934.3%29.1%
40–49 %16244.0%46.3%
50–59 %7054.5%58.6%
60–69 %4165.2%78.0%
70–79 %873.9%87.5%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
80–89 %482.5%75.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
90–99 %198.8%100.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Double chance 1X1,47068.9%67.9%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
0–9 %11.2%0.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
10–19 %417.5%25.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
20–29 %826.1%12.5%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
30–39 %4134.8%22.0%
40–49 %7045.5%41.4%
50–59 %16256.0%53.7%
60–69 %40965.7%70.9%
70–79 %53074.7%69.4%
80–89 %20784.1%86.0%
90–99 %3892.4%92.1%
Double chance X21,47055.4%58.6%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
10–19 %1416.5%21.4%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
20–29 %5626.1%16.1%
30–39 %10835.6%31.5%
40–49 %30745.8%53.7%
50–59 %46255.2%58.2%
60–69 %32764.3%65.1%
70–79 %12974.5%82.9%
80–89 %6084.4%90.0%
90–99 %793.6%100.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Double chance 12 (no draw)1,47075.6%73.5%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
60–69 %5368.3%56.6%
70–79 %1,24574.9%72.4%
80–89 %16783.0%86.8%
90–99 %593.1%80.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Over 1.5 goals (2+)1,47074.7%78.5%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
40–49 %444.6%50.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
50–59 %4255.9%64.3%
60–69 %33766.5%73.6%
70–79 %72075.0%77.8%
80–89 %34183.6%85.9%
90–99 %2691.9%92.3%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Under 1.5 goals (0–1)1,47025.3%21.5%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
0–9 %268.1%7.7%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
10–19 %34116.4%14.1%
20–29 %72025.0%22.2%
30–39 %33733.5%26.4%
40–49 %4244.1%35.7%
50–59 %455.4%50.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Over 2.5 goals (3+)1,47050.9%57.8%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
10–19 %318.9%0.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
20–29 %2226.4%18.2%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
30–39 %16736.5%47.9%
40–49 %53245.4%53.2%
50–59 %47454.6%60.1%
60–69 %21363.9%69.0%
70–79 %5373.7%83.0%
80–89 %581.7%100.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
90–99 %196.7%100.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Under 2.5 goals (0–2)1,47049.1%42.2%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
0–9 %13.3%0.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
10–19 %518.3%0.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
20–29 %5326.3%17.0%
30–39 %21336.1%31.0%
40–49 %47445.4%39.9%
50–59 %53254.6%46.8%
60–69 %16763.5%52.1%
70–79 %2273.6%81.8%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
80–89 %381.1%100.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Over 3.5 goals (4+)1,47029.6%35.4%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
0–9 %118.5%9.1%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
10–19 %18916.9%25.9%
20–29 %63725.0%29.4%
30–39 %43234.3%41.9%
40–49 %15544.0%47.1%
50–59 %3654.1%61.1%
60–69 %963.0%77.8%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
90–99 %191.0%100.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Under 3.5 goals (0–3)1,47070.4%64.6%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
0–9 %19.0%0.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
30–39 %937.0%22.2%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
40–49 %3645.9%38.9%
50–59 %15556.0%52.9%
60–69 %43265.7%58.1%
70–79 %63775.0%70.6%
80–89 %18983.1%74.1%
90–99 %1191.5%90.9%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Over 4.5 goals (5+)1,47014.9%17.8%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
0–9 %3837.8%12.3%
10–19 %79614.3%17.0%
20–29 %23623.5%26.3%
30–39 %4333.5%23.3%
40–49 %1042.3%50.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
50–59 %150.6%100.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
80–89 %181.0%100.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Under 4.5 goals (0–4)1,47085.1%82.2%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
10–19 %119.0%0.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
40–49 %149.4%0.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
50–59 %1057.7%50.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
60–69 %4366.5%76.7%
70–79 %23676.5%73.7%
80–89 %79685.7%83.0%
90–99 %38392.2%87.7%
Both teams scored1,47052.0%57.8%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
20–29 %726.9%71.4%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
30–39 %5136.5%43.1%
40–49 %52546.0%56.0%
50–59 %69554.7%57.7%
60–69 %18263.2%64.8%
70–79 %1072.1%90.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Not both teams scored1,47048.0%42.2%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
20–29 %1027.9%10.0%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
30–39 %18236.8%35.2%
40–49 %69545.3%42.3%
50–59 %52554.0%44.0%
60–69 %5163.5%56.9%
70–79 %773.1%28.6%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
Most likely score occurred1,47012.2%11.3%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
0–9 %1849.5%8.7%
10–19 %1,27912.5%11.6%
20–29 %722.0%14.3%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
One of the three most likely scores occurred1,47032.6%30.9%851 · 0
Breakdown by predicted probability
20–29 %45827.8%26.4%
30–39 %93934.0%32.1%
40–49 %6643.4%45.5%
50–59 %754.3%28.6%fewer than 30 matches — large random variation
  • The rows are not independent: home win, draw and away win describe the same matches, as do all goal lines and their opposites. They must not be added up or averaged.
  • open = kick-off time has passed but there is no evaluation (e.g. postponed, or finished after the last nightly run); upcoming matches are not counted · unclear = played but cannot be evaluated unambiguously
  • Individual scores are not yet evaluated one by one — only whether the most likely one, or one of the three most likely, occurred.
  • Not included: “one of the five most likely scores”. Only three scores per match are stored, so the previous evaluation of this statement was wrong and has been suspended.
— AD —
BACKTEST · NOT A LIVE RECORDuntil 2024-05-11
Backtest on completed matches
MATCHES108,402recomputed
STATEMENTS6,009,061checked individually
PERIOD UNTIL2024-05-11completed matches
This is a validation, not a record. It says how the method behaved on past matches and is never combined with the live record.
BITFAX BETA / DEVELOPMENT PHASEnot part of V1 · until 2026-08-11
BITFAX beta / development phase
ANALYSES2,752previous method
CORRECT1,39350.6%
Earlier development versions using a different method. These forecasts are not part of the BITFAX Analyst V1 record and are never combined with it.
ArchiveWhat is BITFAX Analyst V1?

BITFAX forecasts are statistical probability estimates based on the data available at the time of calculation. They are not a guarantee of the actual result. Historical results and model tests do not guarantee future results.